ACA Premiums 2027 vs 2026: Why Notices Show 33%, Not 13%

Open enrollment for 2027 Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace plans began on 1 November 2026. The headline number is a 13% rise in the average benchmark silver premium, according to KFF's analysis of finalized rates.¹ That comes on top of a 26% jump from 2025 to 2026, so the same benchmark plan now costs about 42% more than it did two years ago.¹

Within a day, renewal notices posted on Threads were telling a different story. A Texas couple saw their plan renew at $17,000 a year, 33% more than in 2026. A family of three in Washington State saw 33.2%. Neither of those is a rounding error on 13%. This piece sets the official averages beside what households report and explains the rules that open the gap.

2026 vs 2027: the official numbers and the notices

The cap applies to households between three and four times the poverty line. It rises from 9.96% of income in 2026, as summarized from the 2026 table of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), to 10.22% in 2027.³⁴

What households are posting

These are self-reported figures from public posts on Threads on 1 and 2 November 2026. We could not see the notices themselves, and we do not name the posters. They are a sample of the people who chose to post, not a survey.

The Texas couple added that 2027 costs more than double what they paid in Minnesota in 2025. The single adult's plan also carries a $10,300 out-of-pocket maximum and pays only 60% of covered costs after the deductible. That post drew about 1,500 likes.

Two posts pushed against the pattern. One household will pay $148 a month less in 2027, but only by moving to a closed health maintenance organization (HMO) network. They give up their primary care doctor, their therapist and every specialist. They still expect to spend about $25,245 on care for two adults.

A small-business owner who pays half of staff premiums faces another 25% increase and says half the employees have already dropped coverage.

Why your number is not 13%

The 13% is an average of one plan type, the second-cheapest silver plan in each area. Your notice prices your plan, at your age, in your county, with your subsidy. Five things move it away from the average.

1. Your state and your insurer

State averages already spread from about 3% in Vermont to 29% requested in Arizona.⁷ Arizona's regulator can judge whether a rise is reasonable but cannot reject it, as reported by Insurance Business citing Arizona Public Media.⁷ New York went the other way. Insurers asked for 20.6% and the state cut it to 6.0%.⁶

Inside one state, insurers differ even more. Washington approved an average of 22.2%, but Community Health Plan of Washington got 30.5% and Regence BlueShield 6.7%.⁵ The Washington family's 33.2% sits above even the highest insurer average, which points to the other factors below.

2. Earning more than four times the poverty line

Above that line there is no premium tax credit at all, so you pay the full price and every percent of the increase.⁴ For 2027 coverage the line is set with the 2026 poverty guidelines. Four times those guidelines is $63,840 for one person and $132,000 for a family of four.⁸

KFF showed how sharp this edge is with a 60-year-old in the same city. At $62,000 a year, a tax credit held the benchmark premium to $6,175. At $64,000 there was no credit, and the same plan cost $14,931.⁹ Those are KFF's 2026 illustrations, but the cliff rule is unchanged for 2027.

3. Age

Insurers may charge the oldest adults up to three times what they charge the youngest, under federal rating rules.¹⁰ So the same percentage increase is a bigger dollar increase for someone in their 50s or 60s. KFF found the cliff hits older middle-income buyers hardest for exactly this reason.⁹

4. A subsidy pegged to someone else's plan

Your tax credit is set by the benchmark silver plan in your area, not by your own plan.² If your plan rises faster than the benchmark, you absorb the whole difference. If the benchmark plan gets cheaper relative to others, your credit shrinks even when your plan barely moved.

That is how a subsidized buyer with a near-zero net premium can receive a letter forecasting a four-figure percentage increase. One poster shared a letter estimating 1,054.61%. A small base makes any dollar change look enormous.

5. Your insurer leaving

As of 29 October, 11 insurers had announced they are leaving at least one state for 2027, and Cigna is leaving the individual market in all 11 of its states.¹ Insurers are leaving the marketplace in more than 20 states, and exits outnumber entries.² If you do nothing, the marketplace will auto-renew you into a plan it picks, which may not keep your doctors or your price.²

Why this is not only the marketplace

Employer plans are rising too, which matters if you are weighing a job with benefits. Mercer projects per-employee benefit costs up 8.2% in 2027 after employers cut plans, and about 11% if they changed nothing.¹¹ Mercer calls it the highest increase since 2003. Other consultancies put the 2027 figure higher. We compared their forecasts in why 2027 employer health forecasts range from 8.2% to 11.1%.

Medicare is the calmer line. The Medicare trustees project the 2027 Part B premium at $209.50 a month, up from $202.90, as reported by AARP.¹² Treat that as a projection until the official figure is announced this fall.

Washington's regulator names the drivers behind its rates. Providers and drug makers are charging more, members are using more care, and healthier people are leaving the market. The end of the enhanced tax credits speeds up that last effect.⁵ KFF counts the exit: individual-market enrollment fell from 25.2 million to 20.5 million by June 2026.¹

For a sense of scale beyond the US, see what one adult pays for basic cover in Switzerland, the Netherlands and Germany in 2027.

What the headline numbers leave out

The premium is half the bill. The out-of-pocket maximum rises to $12,000 for one person in 2027, up from $10,600.² A court in July 2026 stayed a rule that would have let some Bronze plans go to $15,600.² A cheaper plan can still cost more once you are sick.

The averages are not finished. Insurance Business reported in October that Texas, Florida and California, three of the biggest marketplaces, had not finalized rates.⁷ There is no official Texas average to compare with the Texas couple's 33%.

The Threads figures are unverified. They are what people typed, from the people angry enough to post. They show what renewal looks like for some households. They cannot show how common a 33% notice is.

Catastrophic plans are mostly off the table. A July 2026 court stay put back the old limits. If you are 30 or older you need a hardship or affordability exemption to buy one.²

How to check your own notice

Put your notice beside three numbers. First, your state's approved average, from your insurance regulator. Second, your household income against $63,840 for one person or $132,000 for four.⁸ Third, whether your insurer is leaving.

If your income sits just above the line, check how the marketplace counts income before you assume you are over it, because one dollar decides the whole credit. Then log in and compare plans before your marketplace's deadline rather than accepting the auto-renewal.² If your plan is ending, shopping is the only way to choose what replaces it.